The sizing rule
WARN, Superwinch and Smittybilt all size a winch at 1.5 times GVWR, the weight on the driver door sticker, not curb weight; it already covers fuel, gear and passengers. A 5,000 lb GVWR needs a 7,500 lb winch. Smittybilt suggests 2x, 10,000 lb here, as the target for a loaded rig. Ramsey differs: 1.25 times the loaded weight.
Why the drum layer counts
A winch is rated on the first layer of rope, and WARN says it loses about 15% per layer after that. A 9,500 lb winch pulls 9,500 lb with the rope almost all out, 8,075 lb on layer 2 and 6,864 lb on layer 3.
Reading the recovery result
Load factors come from the winching guide in Badland's 12000 manual (Harbor Freight 57918). Mud to the wheels adds 1x the vehicle weight, fenders 2x, body 3x. Slope adds weight × sin(atan(rise ÷ run)): a 20% grade adds 20%, 100% (45°) adds 71%. With the defaults, 5,000 lb sunk to the wheels on a 30% slope, the pull needed is 5,000 + 1,437 = 6,437 lb, and the 9,500 lb winch on layer 3 has 6,864 lb. Enough, barely. A snatch block doubles the winch's pull and adds about 10% for friction, so the same job needs 3,540 lb at the winch. Rigging changes the pull on the winch; it does not raise what the rope or shackles are rated for. This is an estimate, not a safety rating: follow the winch maker's instructions and never exceed the rated pull of the winch, rope or rigging.